Category
Restaurants & Hotels
Out-of-home food and hospitality spending is projected to grow from USD 3.6T in 2026 to USD 5.6T by 2035 - the fastest-reacting category in the whole consumer basket.
USD 3.6T
Spending in 2026
USD 5.6T
Spending in 2035
9,000+
Cities modelled
The elastic category
Out-of-home food is the first line households cut and the first they restore.
That elasticity makes hospitality the single best near-term read on consumer confidence. When real incomes move, this category moves first and moves hardest - which is why operators and investors use it as a leading indicator.
Urbanisation compounds it
Urban households eat out several times more often than rural households at the same income level.
Density, commuting patterns and smaller household sizes all push food spending out of the home. As the world urbanises, the share of the food budget spent outside the home rises structurally, independent of income growth.
Business versus leisure
Hotel demand splits into two very different curves that recovered at different speeds.
Leisure travel now tracks discretionary household income closely, while business travel tracks corporate activity. We separate the two so accommodation strategy is built on the right demand signal.
Why it matters
This is where discretionary spend shows up first. It's the category we get asked about most for near-term signal.
Category stat
5.6T USD
Category size by 2035
Restaurants & Hotels
What's inside
Category detail, done properly
- Restaurants, cafés, canteens, hotels
- Business vs. leisure segmentation
- Urban vs. rural demand splits
- 9,000+ city-level projections
Related categories
Explore adjacent spending
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Restaurants & Hotels
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